I’m sure everyone has been thinking about it - when is it safe to return to travelling internationally? As the EU border is expected to open soon, the opportunity to travel abroad is starting to become a decision that people may make. The decision continues to evolve (See my post from March) and it won’t be the same for everyone, but I wanted to discuss how I’m going to make my decision to return to international travel. Ultimately, it comes down to five things:

These 5 questions need to be answered before international travel

Is COVID-19 under control at home?
Am I able to leave the country?
Is COVID-19 under control at the destination?
Am I able to get to the destination safely?
Does the destination even want me to visit?

Let me explain.

Is COVID-19 under control at home?

First things first, I don’t want to be leaving the country if there is a chance I’m going to pick up COVID-19 while at home and spread it to other people in the air or at my destination in the pre-symptomatic phase (Fact: COVID-19 spreads before symptoms appear). If cases are trending down or negligible, then it’s going to be safer to be at the airport and on the aeroplane.

Principally, I would measure this in three ways, are cases declining, can I easily get tested and is the “hit rate” for testing low. Ideally, cases should be steadily declining and / or below 25 new cases per 100K per week (a manageable level to do contact tracing) in the area that you live AND your departing airport. Ryan Imgrund has been publishing some interesting information about this, and Toronto is now under this threshold.

JUNE 29: 0️⃣.9️⃣4️⃣ 📈 (ONTARIO COVID-19 Rt).

⭐️PHUs report 263 new cases and 5 deaths⭐️

🚦REGIONAL METRIC🚦
🌉 Rt’s
🚑 Hospitalizations
🗺 NEW “Google-Based” Map

🛑 Peel, Halton, Windsor, Waterloo, Kingston
⚠️ Toronto, York, Simcoe Muskoka, Wellington Dufferin Guelph pic.twitter.com/HFkz8qFAeR
— Ryan Imgrund 🦠 (@imgrund) June 29, 2020

I would also want to make sure that I can get tested at any time, without taking a spot of potentially sick people. The WHO wants at least 1 in every 1000 people to get tested each week, whereas Ontario is testing approximately 1 in every 90 residents. As of May 29th, I’m able to take a free COVID-19 test at a COVID Assessment Centre here in Ontario. If I were to travel now, it would not be taking away a test from someone who’s sick.

The final metrics for sustained success is that your home jurisdictions should have a low “hit” rate for COVID-19 tests. As per the World Health Organisation, before reopening, rates of positivity in testing should remain at 5% or lower for at least 14 days. In Ontario, the daily positive test rate is consistently under 1% and the rate since the start of the pandemic is 2.6% and rapidly dropping. The rate in the US has been dropping, but only recently fell below 5%, and is starting to grow again.

Am I able to leave the country?

Before deciding to leave the country, it’s important to make sure the departing country is willing to let residents travel out of the country. Currently, the Government of Canada has an “Avoid non-essential travel outside of Canada” warning, which effectively nullifies most insurance (If you travel to your destination or purchase Trip Cancelation and Interruption after the issuance of the advisory, no claims related to COVID-19 will be paid. TD Insurance’s policy is one of many that states this). In a situation like this, travelling for leisure doesn’t make sense until the Government warning is eliminated.

Even if I’m able to leave the country, will I have to quarantine on my return home? Currently, all people entering Canada are required to quarantine for 14 days. It doesn’t appear that this quarantine will be lifted this summer, although this is a rapidly changing situation. If a quarantine is required on return, I sense that many leisure and business travellers will stay in the country. Ultimately, it will get to a point where Canada may have to individually negotiate with countries that have flattened the curve, to create quarantine free travel corridors to help restart the international tourism trade. In the next few years, travel will be difficult, as borders open and close based on reciprocal agreements.

If Canada does remove some travel warnings and the mandatory quarantine, it’s still a challenge to get to international destinations. Many flights, including some of the longest flights departing the country, have been cancelled. Ultimately, the travel advisory and the required quarantine means that I won’t be travelling abroad for the near future.

Is COVID-19 under control at the destination?

Is COVID under control at the destination?

If COVID-19 is under control at home, and I’m able to leave Canada, I then have to decide where to go. I want to go to countries that are at or better the same standard I hold my own place of departure to, principally, are cases declining, can I get tested and is the “hit rate” for testing low.

Canada, Italy and the United Kingdom are improving their positivity rate

While it may be hard to dig for this information at a more local level, this data is readily available online at Our World in Data, a collaborative effort between researchers at the University of Oxford and the non-profit organization Global Change Data Lab displays all the information at the country level.

Daily Number of COVID-19 Cases (Rolling 7-day average)
Biweekly Confirmed COVID-19 Cases (Cumulative number of confirmed cases over the previous two weeks)
Week by week change in confirmed COVID-19 cases (Percentage change in the number of new confirmed cases over the last seven days relative to the number in the previous seven days)
Share of Daily COVID-19 Tests That Are Positive (The daily positive rate, given as a rolling 7-day average)
Daily COVID-19 Test (Rolling 7-day average)

This reputable website is a great starting point for data on a potential destination. That being said, many countries are not fully reporting their numbers, nor are they testing enough, which means numbers may need to be taken with a grain of salt. If the potential destination meets this threshold, it’s time to start looking to see if the country is interested in hosting tourists.

Am I able to get to the destination safely?

In 2020, planes are inherently safe methods of transport. That being said, during an airborne pandemic, there is an increased safety risk of flying. The airport, the plane itself and any connections can be risky endeavours that need to be considered.

As airports get more crowded, social distancing won’t be possible. Currently, many airline lounges are closed, but they are expected to open in the coming month. As traffic picks up, innovations proposed by Air Canada like virtual queues may work, but there will eventually be a lack of space in the airports, and I suspect that cleaning standards will fall back down to normal. Right now, I think airports will be able to facilitate social distancing, but this may need to be revisited in the fall.

I suspect airport lines may get back to this sooner rather than later

While planes are safe, they don’t facilitate social distancing (well, unless you’re planning to fly in the First Class Apartment on Etihad). Both WestJet and Air Canada are no longer blocking the middle seats on their flights, which means that you may be seated next to people you don’t know. Although Air Canada will allow you to re-book your flight (if nearing capacity) for free, it may not be the best option. Some bloggers are making the case the flying isn’t a big risk as it appears. According to this 2008 paper, only 4 of 250 people on a plane got tuberculosis from a carrier, and they were all sitting near to patient 0. According to the IATA, Total airflow to the cabin is equivalent to 20 to 30 air changes per hour. That being said, the risks are still there. In a 2004 study published in the New England Journal of Medicine, a man who had SARs most likely spread the virus to 22 fellow passengers on board. Based on this research, well summarized in this Washington Post article, the researchers found that the risk for those in the three rows in front of the man in 14E, or in the same row. With that being said, even with all the precautions taken, wearing a mask on board will be critical for at least the next year. When considering travelling, I would want to be on a carrier that requires masks while sitting in the back few rows of business class.

This visualization from Purdue University shows how tiny invisible droplets from a single cough can flow through the cabin of a Boeing 767 passenger jet. The model is based on the assumption that the 2003 SARS virus was airborne. (Qingyan Chen/Purdu… — This visualization from Purdue University shows how tiny invisible droplets from a single cough can flow through the cabin of a Boeing 767 passenger jet. The model is based on the assumption that the 2003 SARS virus was airborne. (Qingyan Chen/Purdue University School of Mechanical Engineering)

Finally, any connecting flight adds some risk to travel, but if the connecting country meets points 3 (Is COVID-19 under control at the destination?) and 4 (Does the country want me (to transfer)?) then I would consider flying a one stop route.

Does the destination want me to visit?

The current pandemic has upended the travel and tourism industry and has changed the mass tourism landscape forever. That being said, countries are slowly reintroducing tourists into their economy. While some countries are putting up barriers that make it very unlikely that a tourist would visit (I’m looking at you Cambodia), others are opening up their tourist economy (like Greece, covered in detail by Ricky at the Prince of Travel)

I may have speculated and booked 5 nights at the Domes Miramare (Marriott)

In the foreseeable future, to be a viable destination, the destination must have activities that are conducive to socially distancing, they will have to be tourist infrastructure open, and the country’s tourism industry has to recognize and mitigate the risks for spreading COVID-19.

As a result of COVID-19 and the social distancing in place, city breaks are no longer the go to trip. When starting to travel, it’s important to consider if the activities that will take place are social distancing friendly or not. For example, I recently returned from a weekend in Prince Edward County for a social distancing bike trip with two other friends. Internationally, destinations opening up like the Maldives and Hawaii (which has largely escaped being devastated by COVID-19) are predominantly outdoors destinations.

Cycling, the perfect social distancing activity

To be considered as a potential destination, countries need to have hotels, sights and restaurants open for business. Additionally, countries have to recognize that COVID-19 has changed the landscape and they need to develop mitigating strategies to better handle potential outbreaks. For example, according to Ricky’s research, the Greek government has provided several health-oriented assurances, including a designated doctor for each hotel, dedicated testing facilities on the Greek islands, and a focused plan of audits for all tourist-oriented enterprises within the country. Furthermore, it’s important to consider the availability of quality healthcare in your destination if you were to become ill with COVID-19.

The Point

Destinations like the Greek Islands, Venice, Rome and Paris will feel authentic like they have never felt before. Travelling in the foreseeable future will be complicated, but for those who are comfortable taking calculated risks based on up to date science and current facts will be able to experience destinations that have been overrun by tourists in recent years. That being said, until Canada drops it’s quarantine rules for returning Canadians and the non-essential travel warning, I will be spending my time exploring our great country.