Corona Virus - Should I Travel?

Editor’s Note: I’m not a medical professional. For the latest updates on the situation at home and abroad, the Public Health Agency of Canada provides updates on the matter.

Edit 2: Based on new information (including this statistical analysis) I cannot recommend travel in the next 6 weeks as I now believe that hospitals will be overcrowded, and we need to protect the most vulnerable by staying as healthy as possible.

Unfortunately, the talk of the town (and the rest of the world) has been COVID-19, commonly referred to as the Wuhan Virus and the CoronaVirus. The stock market plunged last week after traders came to a realisation that this could be worse than expected, including airlines who’ve been on a tear, in a negative way. In fact, American Airlines has lost almost half of its market value in the last week alone. I have a fear that we will lose several airlines over the next few months.

With quarantines abound, including those travelling from Italy, South Korea, Iran, and China, is it worth travelling right now in this unknown world? 

Flexibility of Award Travel

The beauty of award travel is that it’s much more flexible than regular travel. For example, if I’m travelling to Vancouver at the end of the month, it will cost me about $650 to book on Air Canada, but the flight is booked into a basic fare bucket, and therefore I’m not able to cancel. (Edit: WestJet and Air Canada have announced flight change waivers)

Even if I paid for the next fare class up, I still wouldn’t be able to refund my fare, and it would cost $100 plus a fare difference to change my flights. 

To get free changes, it would triple the cost of the fare, and this picture is for the one-way fare!

It’s only going up from here…

If you were booking using Aeroplan, it would only cost $75 to cancel your flight online with Aeroplan or $100 to change the flight in each direction, a small price to pay for the flexibility it provides. 

Aeroplan cancelation policies are much more generous than cash fares

Recent Experience 

My parents were on their epic Aeroplan mRTW in the middle of this COVID-19 nightmare. Luckily, they were out of Asia by the time January finished, as they spent the first half of February cruising around New Zealand. On arrival in Sydney, Australia from their cruise, their boat was stopped in the port as some cruisers were sick and had to be tested for the CoronaVirus. Luckily, it was a false alarm and they were allowed into Sydney to enjoy their time at the Pier One Sydney Harbour.

Pier One Sydney Harbour Marriott Autograph Collection (Marriott International)

That being said, the situation in South Korea was becoming more serious, Singapore had several cases and they were due to fly into the US. In their opinion, this was enough for them to cut their flights down to the minimum required nights, and instead, they requested a more direct routing home. 

A much more direct, but much worse trip

I made the call to Aeroplan after finding saver space on United’s non-Polaris service from SYD-LAX. The agent was able to cancel the return portion of a mRTW, giving me back my 160K miles and the remaining taxes and fees. Unfortunately, because there were no travel advisories at the time, they did charge me $100 + tax to cancel the booking. Furthermore, the agent didn’t waive the $30 booking fee for the return, adding to the financial sting. That being said, considering what’s going on in South Korea, I’m happy that I made the changes which ensured my parents got home healthy and ready for their next travels. 

Travelling in a COVID-19 world (Updated - March 11)

I won’t be travelling until the spread of the CoronaVirus slows down. A recent Chinese study shows that in my age group there is a 0.2% mortality rate, that being said, modelling shows that as this spreads, our hospitals won’t be able to handle what’s coming if 10% of all cases need to be hospitalized. I’m not interested in travelling for two main reasons; 1) work potentially may quarantine me upon my return 2) I may be quarantined in another country.

My work has already come out and said that people travelling to areas with a large number of cases will be required to self-quarantine for 14 days. I for one don’t want to be stuck at home for 14 days after vacation, as it's not very conducive to my job. Furthermore, my girlfriend may also be subjected to this quarantine, which would make things even more complicated. 

Besides getting the virus, the worst-case scenario would be a quarantine in an unfamiliar place, which has been enforced on cruise ships (Canada’s chief public health officer has warned against going on a cruise). If I was to fly home from Sri Lanka on Ethiad First, which was originally my plan, I would hate to be quarantined in Sri Lanka or the UAE. 

Edit: March 9th

After this article was posted in the Next Departure Facebook group, I have become aware of this post by an Italian doctor in Bergamo, Italy (an English translation was then re-posted on Reddit). While it does make me more apprehensive about the virus, it’s scary to think how the hospitals will cope when it does end up spreading in Toronto.

The Point

Even though there are more award flights than normal (as airlines are struggling - don’t be surprised to see several airlines go out of business) it’s not worth risking a quarantine and further spreading the virus. I am hopeful that there will be a timeframe when the hysteria around COVID-19 dies down, but people are still afraid to travel. When that happens, I’ll book a vacation knowing prices will be cheaper and there will be fewer tourists.